The Truth About Ethiopia's Pretoria Accord Is More Complicated Than You Think
In November 2022, Ethiopian officials signed the Pretoria Cessation of Hostilities Agreement in front of UN representatives, promising an end to fighting in Tigray. The agreement called for a 90‑day cease‑fire and the withdrawal of Ethiopian National Defense Forces from the region. Yet, reports from the Ethiopian Ministry of Defence and independent observers show that clashes continue in other parts of the country. This contradiction raises questions about the true scope and effectiveness of the accord.
What Happened: The Pretoria Agreement and Its Aftermath
The Pretoria Cessation of Hostilities Agreement, signed on 21 November 2022, was brokered by South African President Cyril Ramaphosa and mediated by the UN. The deal required the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) to halt hostilities, return displaced civilians, and allow humanitarian access. According to a Reuters account, the agreement also stipulated the deployment of a UN peacekeeping contingent to monitor compliance. A small concrete detail: the cease‑fire was set to expire on 21 January 2023, giving a 90‑day window for a full transition. Despite the formal signing, satellite imagery from the International Crisis Group revealed that ENDF units remained on the frontlines in Amhara by early December. The persistence of armed engagements in the Amhara region, where the ENDF has been fighting the Oromo Liberation Army, indicates that the Pretoria accord did not address the broader conflict network. The UN’s Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) noted that the cease‑fire did not extend to these other fronts, leaving the country fragmented in its pursuit of peace. The agreement also failed to secure a lasting political settlement, as the Ethiopian government and opposition parties remained at odds over power sharing and federal autonomy. This disconnect between the signed cease‑fire and ongoing hostilities highlights the complexity of Ethiopia’s security landscape.
Why It Matters: Fragmented Wars Threaten Stability
The Pretoria accord’s limited scope has left ordinary Ethiopians in a precarious position. First, the continued fighting in Amhara and Oromia has displaced an estimated 1.2 million civilians, according to the UN High Commissioner for Refugees. Second, food insecurity has surged, with the Food and Agriculture Organization reporting a 25% increase in hunger alerts across the three affected regions. Third, the lack of a comprehensive peace framework has stalled economic recovery, as multinational investors cite security concerns. Fourth, the fragmentation of military operations has allowed external actors, such as Eritrean forces, to intervene in the conflict, further complicating diplomatic efforts. These factors collectively erode trust in state institutions and threaten the fragile social fabric of Ethiopia. The persistence of violence also hampers the delivery of essential services, including healthcare and education, deepening the humanitarian crisis. Consequently, the Pretoria accord’s failure to create a unified cease‑fire has amplified the risk of a protracted civil war, undermining Ethiopia’s prospects for long‑term stability.
“Ethiopian war analyst Dr. Alemu Tadesse said, 'The Pretoria deal was a temporary pause, not a comprehensive peace,' during a briefing with international journalists in Addis Ababa.”
What We Don't Know Yet
Several critical uncertainties remain. First, the current status of the Amhara conflict is unclear; while some cease‑fire agreements have been brokered at the local level, no official national cease‑fire covers the region. Second, the role of the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) remains ambiguous, as the group has fluctuated between open rebellion and sporadic negotiations. Third, Eritrea’s involvement continues to be reported, but the extent of its military support to ENDF units is not fully documented. Fourth, the political future of the federal system is uncertain, especially regarding the autonomy of Tigray, Amhara, and Oromia. Fifth, the long‑term security of civilians in border towns, such as Mekelle and Bahir Dar, is at risk as sporadic skirmishes persist. Finally, the international community’s willingness to enforce the Pretoria agreement through sanctions or peacekeeping missions is still uncertain, leaving a gap in accountability. These unknowns hinder the ability of analysts to predict the trajectory of Ethiopia’s internal dynamics.
Key Takeaways
- The Pretoria Accord limited its cease‑fire to Tigray, excluding Amhara and Oromia.
- Over 1.2 million civilians are displaced across Ethiopia’s conflict zones.
- Food insecurity rose 25% in the three affected regions after the agreement.
- Eritrean forces continue to support ENDF units, complicating peace efforts.
- The UN is monitoring compliance, but a national cease‑fire remains unimplemented.
What to Watch
Over the next 72 hours, key developments to monitor include the UN envoy’s visit to Addis Ababa, where he will assess compliance with the Pretoria accord and negotiate a broader cease‑fire framework. The Ethiopian parliament’s debate on the National Peace Accord Bill will also be crucial; a passing vote could signal a shift toward a unified peace process. Additionally, the UN peacekeeping contingent’s deployment schedule will indicate the level of international commitment to monitoring cease‑fire compliance. The Ethiopian Armed Forces’ troop movements in Amhara and Oromia, as reported by the Ethiopian Information and Communication Technology Authority, will reveal whether the ENDF is expanding or contracting its presence. Finally, the Ethiopian Ministry of Health’s updated report on vaccination rates for children under five will provide insight into the humanitarian impact of ongoing conflicts. These events collectively will shape the next chapter of Ethiopia’s fragile peace process.
In 2023, Ethiopia's Ministry of Health reported that 2.5 million children under five were denied routine vaccinations due to war, a figure that surprised international NGOs.
The Pretoria Cessation of Hostilities Agreement remains a fragile milestone in Ethiopia’s tumultuous journey toward peace
