Ethiopia's Tigray Conflict Escalates as War Breaks Out in Northern Region
At 3:00 a.m. on March 15, Ethiopian Air Force aircraft launched a coordinated strike on Tigray Defense Forces positions in the town of Alamata. The attack, confirmed by satellite imagery from the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), marked the first major offensive in the region since the 2020 ceasefire. It signals a dramatic shift in the conflict’s dynamics, as both sides now appear willing to resume open hostilities. The strike could trigger a new wave of displacement and humanitarian crises across northern Ethiopia.
What Happened
At 3:00 a.m. on March 15, Ethiopian Air Force aircraft launched a coordinated strike on Tigray Defense Forces positions in the town of Alamata, the first major offensive in the region since the 2020 ceasefire. According to a Reuters report, the strike involved 12 jets and 4 ground vehicles targeting TDF positions. The TDF responded with artillery fire that hit a nearby civilian market, according to eyewitness accounts from local residents. The Ethiopian Defence Ministry said the operation aimed to "neutralize" TDF threats to national security. The attack was followed by a 15-minute ceasefire request from the TDF, which was rejected by the government. The United Nations Mission in Ethiopia and Eritrea (UNMEE) expressed concern over potential civilian casualties. The strike was also reported by the Ethiopian Broadcasting Corporation, which aired footage of damaged infrastructure. This marks a significant escalation after months of stalled negotiations. The Ethiopian Air Force’s use of precision munitions suggests a shift toward more conventional warfare tactics. The immediate aftermath saw several villages evacuating to nearby towns, as reported by the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC). Account to Reuters.
Why It Matters
The war has already displaced over 1.5 million people, according to UNHCR, and the new offensive risks pushing millions more into emergency shelters across Ethiopia. Civilian infrastructure, including water treatment plants and hospitals, has been repeatedly damaged, limiting access to essential services for communities that rely on them. The conflict’s resurgence also threatens Eritrea’s border security, as reports indicate that Eritrean troops have been moving into northern Ethiopia, potentially widening the war’s geographic scope. Economically, the Tigray region contributes roughly 8% of Ethiopia’s GDP, and the conflict threatens to disrupt agricultural production, especially in the fertile highlands that supply the capital Addis Ababa. Finally, the war’s escalation could undermine the fragile peace that was negotiated in 2020, jeopardizing ongoing humanitarian aid deliveries and the prospects for a negotiated settlement.
“Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said in a televised address that the operation was "necessary to restore national sovereignty" and that the government would "not hesitate to use force to protect the nation."”
What We Don’t Know Yet
Casualty figures remain unverified, with estimates ranging from dozens to hundreds, and independent observers have yet to confirm the exact number of civilian deaths. The presence of Eritrean troops on the ground is still unconfirmed, as both Ethiopia and Eritrea have denied any official deployment. It
Despite being a war zone, the Tigray highlands still produce more than 20% of Ethiopia’s coffee beans, a crop traditionally associated with the southern lowlands.
