Prediction: Iraq's Anti-ISIS Mission Ends Today. Here Is Why
A convoy of Humvees crossed the Mosul checkpoint on Friday, carrying the last American and British soldiers out of Iraq. Their departure marks the end of the U.S.–led anti‑ISIS campaign, a mission that cost 1,000 U.S. service members and 300 Iraqi troops. The withdrawal follows a 2022 agreement between Washington and Baghdad that made the exit a priority for the Iraqi government. With the coalition troops gone, Iraq now faces the challenge of sustaining security against a resurgent insurgent network.
What Happened: Final Withdrawal of U.S. and UK Forces
On Friday, 27 April, the last U.S. and U.K. troops crossed the Mosul border checkpoint into Iraqi territory. The convoy, consisting of 42 Humvees and 12 support vehicles, was escorted by the Iraqi Army’s 4th Division. The final American soldier, 28‑year‑old Specialist Thomas Reilly, stepped onto Iraqi soil for the last time and was photographed by local journalists. The U.S. Central Command confirmed that all 1,200 U.S. troops stationed in Iraq had departed by the end of the day, while the British Ministry of Defence announced that its 200 personnel had also left. According to a Reuters account, the withdrawal was carried out under a cease‑fire agreement signed in 2022 that stipulated a phased exit over two years, with the last phase concluding this week.n
Why It Matters
The exit of coalition forces signals a shift in Iraq’s security architecture, as the country now relies almost entirely on its own armed forces and a smaller U.N. support mission. This change may widen the operational burden on Iraqi troops, who have faced shortages in equipment and training. Economically, the departure could reduce foreign investment uncertainty, but also risks destabilizing oil production if insurgent attacks increase. Politically, the move reflects Iraq’s assertion of sovereignty, but it also leaves a power vacuum that could be exploited by rival factions. For ordinary Iraqis, the withdrawal means fewer foreign troops to deter daily threats, but also the possibility of a more autonomous government capable of addressing local grievances.n
“"Today we celebrate a historic moment of national sovereignty," said Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al‑Sudani at the Ministry of Defence, emphasizing the end of foreign military presence after a decade of conflict.”
What We Don't Know Yet
While the coalition’s physical departure is complete, the long‑term security of Iraq remains uncertain. ISIS remnants still operate in remote areas, and there are reports of increased mortar attacks in Mosul and Fallujah. The Iraqi Army’s capacity to maintain continuous patrols without U.S. logistical support is still untested, especially in regions with limited infrastructure. Economic projections suggest a potential 5% decline in oil revenue over the next fiscal year if insurgent activity escalates, but exact figures are still pending. The effectiveness of the U.N. Assistance Mission’s new mandate to train Iraqi forces has yet to be measured, leaving a critical gap in the country’s defense readiness.n
What to Watch
In the
Despite the massive U.S. troop presence, only 3 percent of Iraq’s 4 million‑strong population ever lived within a 10‑kilometre radius of a coalition base.
