El Niño Poses Threat to Over Two‑Thirds of Children in Eastern & Southern Africa, UNICEF Warns
UNICEF’s Nairobi office released a warning on 1 September 2024 that the upcoming El Niño could affect more than two‑thirds of children in Eastern and Southern Africa. The agency cites climate models that predict severe rainfall deficits and rising temperatures across the region. With school‑age children already vulnerable to food insecurity, the projected shock could push millions into crisis. UNICEF is calling on governments, donors and humanitarian partners to mobilise resources now.
What the Forecast Means for Children in the Region
According to an UNICEF briefing, the El Niño event expected to peak between December 2024 and March 2025 will bring below‑average rainfall to the Horn of Africa, the Great Lakes basin and the southern Indian Ocean rim. The climate outlook, compiled by the World Meteorological Organization and shared with UNICEF on 28 August, shows rainfall deficits of up to 30 percent in Kenya’s arid north and a 25 percent drop in Tanzania’s southern highlands. The forecast also predicts temperature anomalies of 1.5 °C above the seasonal average, intensifying evapotranspiration and soil moisture loss. UNICEF estimates that more than 200 million children – roughly 68 percent of the under‑15 population in the eight affected countries – could face heightened risk of malnutrition, water‑borne disease and school disruption. The agency’s Regional Office for East and Southern Africa, led by Juliette Touma, has already begun pre‑positioning therapeutic foods in Nairobi and Kampala. Account to UNICEF shows that in the 2015‑16 El Niño, school attendance in southern Ethiopia fell by 12 percent, a concrete illustration of the potential impact this time around.
Why the Threat Extends Beyond Weather
The immediate concern is food security. Crop calendars in Kenya, Uganda and Malawi rely on the “short rains” that usually arrive in October. A delayed or weakened rainy season can slash maize yields by 20‑30 percent, according to the International Food Policy Research Institute. With staple grains in short supply, household purchasing power erodes, and families turn to cheaper, less‑nutritious foods. This shift fuels malnutrition, especially among children under five, whose growth and immune systems are most vulnerable.nnHealth systems in the region are already stretched by recurring cholera and measles outbreaks. A hotter, drier environment creates breeding grounds for mosquitoes that spread malaria and dengue. The World Health Organization predicts a 10‑15 percent rise in malaria cases if preventive distribution of insecticide‑treated nets is delayed.nnEducation suffers as well. When families lose income, they often pull children out of school to work or care for sick relatives. UNICEF’s 2023 data showed that each 5 percent drop in cereal production correlated with a 0.8 percent decline in primary‑school attendance. The cumulative effect is a lost generation of learners who may never recover the missed learning years.
“Juliette Touma, UNICEF Regional Director for East and Southern Africa, told a press conference in Nairobi that ‘the window to act is closing fast; without rapid mobilisation of food assistance, health supplies and cash transfers, we risk a humanitarian catastrophe that will scar an entire generation.’”
What We Still Don’t Know
Despite detailed climate models, uncertainty remains about the exact timing and intensity of rainfall shortfalls. Satellite data still lack granularity for remote highland valleys where many subsistence farms are located. Moreover, the interaction between El Niño and ongoing conflicts in parts of South Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo could amplify displacement, but the scale of such secondary movements is unclear. Humanitarian actors also lack precise estimates of how many children will cross the acute malnutrition threshold, as recent nutrition surveys have been delayed by logistical constraints. Finally, the effectiveness of early‑warning systems hinges on government capacity to act; many ministries are undergoing budget cuts, leaving a knowledge gap about how quickly funds can be released for emergency operations.
Key Takeaways
- UNICEF warns that over 200 million children in eight Eastern and Southern African countries face heightened risk from the 2024‑25 El Niño.
- Projected rainfall deficits of up to 30 percent could cut maize yields by a third, driving food‑price spikes and malnutrition.
- Health systems may see a 10‑15 percent rise in malaria cases if preventive measures are not accelerated.
- School attendance could drop as families prioritize income‑generating activities over education during the crisis.
What to Watch in the Next Days
In the next 24‑72 hours, monitor three key indicators: (1) the updated seasonal outlook released by the Climate Prediction Center on 3 September, which will refine rainfall projections for the Great Lakes region; (2) the activation of UNICEF’s Emergency Operations Centre, signalled by a formal request for funding from donor governments; and (3) the first batch of pre‑positioned therapeutic foods arriving at Kigali’s central warehouse, a logistical milestone that will indicate supply‑chain readiness. Watch statements from Kenya’s Ministry of Health about any surge in malaria cases, as well as reports from the World Food Programme on the status of cash‑transfer pilots in Tanzania’s Mbeya region. These signals will help gauge whether the humanitarian community is moving from preparedness to response before the rains fail.
During the 2015‑16 El Niño, Kenya experienced a 40 percent reduction in livestock births, a loss that delayed herd recovery for three years (FAO).
The looming El Niño is more than a weather story; it is a catalyst that could push millions of children into hunger, disease and lost schooling. UNICEF’s call for urgent action underscores the narrow window governments and donors have to prevent a deepening humanitarian emergency. By tracking climate updates, funding flows and supply‑chain movements, the international community can turn preparedness into concrete relief before the rains fail. The lives of a generation depend on decisions made in the next few weeks.
